An intensive search for an Achilles
heel in the Springboks “bomb squad”, the huge forwards who lumber out from the reserves bench for the second half, will have been a preoccupation for the All Blacks this week.
We learned in Johannesburg that New Zealand can’t better them with man-on-man physical combat. Men like Malcolm Marx are basically breeze blocks in a footy jersey, and New Zealand rugby is not currently brimming with huge, intimidating forwards.
On the other hand, concrete blocks aren’t famous for their mobility, and the key to a win in Cape Town may be finding a way to move the ball to places in the field where there’s breathing space for fliers.
Will Jordan at fullback and Cortez Ratima at halfback are basically neon signs saying the All Blacks are gearing up for all-out attack.
Will that be easy? Of course not, but we managed it twice at Ellis Park when Caleb Clarke scored two beautiful running tries. And despite the size and strength of South Africa’s forwards, there’s nothing for the All Blacks to fear at the lineout, or the scrum, where winning the ball in the first test was a seamless process.
Getting the ball to the flanks, rather than tying it up in the middle of the field, may be the key to defusing the bomb squad.
Great risk can bring great rewards
There are several players from the triumphant 2011 and 2015 World Cup All Blacks teams who have proved desperately hard to replace, and blindside flanker Jerome Kaino is right up there with McCaw, Carter and Nonu as a once-in-a-generation great whose boots have never been really filled.
The most daring move in the new-look team by far is starting 21-year-old Wallace Sititi in Kaino’s old No 6 jersey. At 113kg, Sititi is three kilos heavier than Kaino was at the 2015 World Cup. Of course Sititi doesn’t have the experience that helped Kaino become one of the most feared men in test rugby, so there are risks in the selection.
But if it pays off, it may be the most dramatic All Blacks move since 2012, when a kid from Feilding called Aaron Smith leapfrogged 2011 World Cup halfbacks Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis and Jimmy Cowan to seize the pivot spot for the next 12 years.
Debating the haka
The usual assembly of online haka haters emerged this week, after the chaotic scenes just before kickoff in the first test at Ellis Park. Two thoughts spring to mind.
One. Having been lucky enough to be at grounds all over the world to see the All Blacks perform the haka, I swear that in Europe, Australia, Japan and South Africa, the vast majority of international rugby fans love it.
Two. The South African Rugby Union board formally apologised for the human error that saw loud recorded music break out before the end of the haka. If the board felt they’d made a mistake, shouldn’t that be enough to close down the discussion?
An ashtray on a motorbike
Don’t hold your breath for a response from World Rugby about the extraordinary decision by Television Match Official (TMO) Brian MacNeice and referee Andrew Brace to not review the try awarded to Springbok Bongo Mbonambi in the first test at Ellis Park.
New Zealand Rugby has yet to be given an explanation about the extraordinary refereeing French farce that robbed the 2017 All Blacks of the chance to win the series against the Lions at Eden Park.
And the reality is that officials admitting a mistake after the final whistle is, as an old family friend used to say, as useless as an ashtray on a motorbike.
In 2014 in Sydney, the Crusaders lost the Super Rugby final against the Waratahs when South African ref Craig Joubert awarded a penalty against Richie McCaw in the 79th minute, which Bernard Foley kicked to give his team a 33-32 victory.
The next day, Crusaders’ coach Todd Blackadder got a phone call from Joubert, who said he’d looked at a video, and wanted to apologise for his incorrect call, which cost the Crusaders the title. “What can you say?” Blackadder told me two years later, the result from that night in Sydney still burning. “All I could do was say ‘thanks for the call’.”
Odds on the ‘Boks
The TAB saw the All Blacks as two-to-one rank outsiders before the first test. It’s interesting that the professional odds makers don’t have a great deal more faith in New Zealand succeeding in Cape Town.
South Africa are at $1.55 to win, with the All Blacks at $2.35. A New Zealand victory would be an upset, but it’s not just patriotism that makes me believe it wouldn’t be as big a surprise as the TAB suggests.
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